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Trade Idea of the Day Presented by: Calculated Risk

AIA: "Slight rebound for architecture billings in April"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Slight rebound for architecture billings in AprilFollowing a sizable decrease in demand for design services in March, the April Architecture Billings Index (ABI) climbed back into... Read More

Kansas City Fed: "Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued at a Modest Pace"

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity continued at a modest pace, and expectations for future activity remained generally solid. “Regional factory growth was sluggish again in May,” said Wilkerson. “Several firms noted that new tariffs were disrupting activity.” The month-over-month composite index was 4 in May, similar to a reading of 5 in April but down from 10 in March. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Growth continued to grow modestly at most durable and nondurable...

New Home Sales decreased to 673,000 Annual Rate in April, March Revised up to New Cycle High

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 692 thousand. The previous three months were revised up."Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.9 percent below the revised March rate of 723,000, but is 7.0 percent above the April 2018 estimate of 629,000." The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically. The second graph shows New Home Months of...

Chemical Activity Barometer Increased Slightly in May

From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Third Monthly Gain in May. The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 0.4 percent in May on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, the third monthly gain after several weak months. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.5 percent (3MMA). "Year-earlier comparisons have turned positive in recent months, and while trade tensions, slowing economic growth overseas, and soft economic reports in the U.S. have created uncertainty that has weighed on business investment, the CAB signals gains in U.S. commercial and industrial activity through mid-2019, albeit at a moderate pace,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC...

Comments on April Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.19 million in April A few key points: 1) The key for housing - and the overall economy - is new home sales, single family housing starts and overall residential investment. Overall, this is still a somewhat reasonable level for existing home sales. No worries. 2) Inventory is still low, and was only up 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) in April. This was the ninth consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in inventory, although the YoY increase was smaller in April than in the six previous months. 3) Year-to-date sales are down about 4.9% compared to the same period in 2018. On an annual basis, that would put sales around 5.1 million in 2019. Sales slumped at the end of and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates...

Fly Intel: Top five analyst downgrades

Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. KKR (KKR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse analyst Craig Siegenthaler citing a lower relative 12-month total return forecast and following the stock's 25%-30% total return year to date. 2. Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen. 3. CAE (CAE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital and to Hold from Buy citing "limited potential returns." 4. Tremont Mortgage Trust (TRMT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS with analyst Brock Vandervliet saying last week's surprising capital raise has eroded shareholder value. 5. Carlyle Group (CG) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse with analyst...

U.S. CBD market could grow to $15B in five years, says Piper Jaffray

The FDA's previous decision that red yeast rice is an acceptable dietary supplement with naturally occurring levels of Monacolin K may set precedent for full spectrum or broad spectrum hemp extract that contains cannabidiol, or CBD, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery tells investors in a research note. However, CBD is the active ingredient in FDA-approved Epidiolex, which complicates its regulatory treatment, the analyst adds. He notes that because CBD is in an approved drug, the FDA rules do not allow it to be marketed as a dietary supplement. Nonetheless, given the red yeast rice precedent, the analyst "would logically expect" the FDA to allow products with hemp extract to be marketed as over-the-counter dietary...

Fly Intel: Top five analyst upgrades

Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. General Dynamics (GD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs with analyst Noah Poponak saying the valuation of General Dynamics relative to its defense peers has moved to the low-end of historical ranges. 2. Target (TGT) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Simeon Gutman citing his view that the 15% pullback in the stock over the past month leaves less near-term downside and that the company "appears to be past peak margin pain." 3. NeoPhotonics (NPTN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley FBR with analyst David Kang saying the company's exposure to Huawei has been "de-risked" following the recent selloff in the shares. 4. United Continental (UAL) upgraded to Overweight from...

Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in April"

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in AprilLed by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in April from +0.05 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from March, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.32 in April from –0.24 in March. This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in April (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of...

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