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Trade Idea of the Day Presented by: Calculated Risk

Earlier: NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys

Earlier from the Philly Fed: August 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed... Read More

Citron bought GE shares yesterday after 'reckless, dishonest' report

Andrew Left's Citron Research weighed in on Harry Markopolos' General Electric (GE) report and disclosed that it bought shares of GE yesterday. Citron wrote, "Aggressive accounting and fraud are two different animals. The SEC has allowed aggressive accounting for years, which has helped fuel a growing economy. If GE was committing fraud then it has been a grand scale conspiracy by thousands of accountants, auditors, and division CFOs who have all secretly collaborated over the past 20 years." Citron also notes, "In just the past week, four GE insiders bought stock. Most notably, GE CEO Larry Culp bought $3 million of stock earlier this week and then bought another $2 million of stock in response to the bogus short report...

BLS: July Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Arkansas, Maine and New Jersey

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in July in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Three states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 46 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.7 percent, was unchanged over the month and little changed from July 2018. Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in July, 2.1 percent. The rates in Alabama (3.3 percent), Arkansas (3.4 percent), Maine (3.0 percent), and New...

Fly Intel: Pre-market Movers

UP AFTER EARNINGS: Walmart (WMT), up 7%... Alibaba (BABA), up 4%... J.C. Penney (JCP), up 14%... Canadian Solar (CSIQ), up 11%. ALSO HIGHER: Pivotal Software (PVTL), up 73% after confirming that it is in discussions with VMware (VMW) regarding a potential business combination through a transaction in which VMware would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Class A common stock of the company for cash at a per share price equal to $15.00. DOWN AFTER EARNINGS: Tapestry (TPR), down 8%... Canopy Growth (CGC), down 9%... Cisco (CSCO), down 5%. ALSO LOWER: VMware (VMW), down 3% after proceeding to negotiate definitive agreements with respect to a transaction to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Class A common stock of Pivotal...

GE falls 6% after Madoff whistleblower says accounting fraudulent, inaccurate

Harry Markopolos, the accounting expert who raised red flags about Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, will release today an over 170 page report on the accounting of General Electric, Thomas Gryta and Mark Maremont of Wall Street Journal report. Markopolos alleges GE has masked the depths of its problems, resulting in inaccurate and fraudulent financial filings with regulators, according to Gryta and Maremont. In an interview with the Journal, Markopolos said his group found GE's insurance unit will need to bolster its reserves by $18.5B in cash. He also faulted the way the company is accounting for its oil-and-gas business. The accounting problems amount to $38B, or 40% of GE's market...

Fair Isaac drops after FHFA finalizes rule on alternatives for Fannie, Freddie

The Federal Housing Finance Agency sent to the Federal Register for publication a final rule on the validation and approval of third-party credit score models that can be used by Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC). The regulation requires a four-phase process for validation and approval of credit score models: Solicitation of applications from credit score model developers; Submission and initial review of submitted applications; Credit score assessment; and, Enterprise business assessment. "One of my priorities is to ensure that the American people have a safe and sound path to sustainable homeownership, which requires tools to accurately measure risk," said FHFA Director Mark Calabria. "The final rule we are publishing...

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in July, Core PCE below 2%

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.4% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.3% (3.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3%...

Small Business Optimism Index Increased in July

CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the "Single Most Important Problem".From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): July 2019 Report: Small Business Optimism Index. The Optimism Index rose 1.4 points to 104.7, an exceptional reading. Seven of the 10 components advanced, two fell, and one was unchanged. Job creation slowed in July, falling to an average addition of 0.12 workers per firm on average. Finding qualified workers is becoming increasingly difficult with a 46-year record high of 26 percent reporting finding qualified workers as their number one problem. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 104.7...

BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in July, Core CPI increased 0.3%

From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 in July, the same increase as in June. The July rise was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for shelter, medical care, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, apparel, and personal care all contributing to the increase.The all items index increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending July, a larger increase than the 1.6-percent...

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