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Trade Idea of the Day Presented by: Zero Hedge

Bond Bears Panic, Cover Shorts At Fastest Pace Since Brexit; But Rate-Hike Bets Top $3 Trillion

Last week saw the largest drop in aggregate Treasury short positions since Brexit. Ironicaly, while bond bears felt the squeeze, traders piled into Eurodollar shorts (increased rate-hike bets) sending the short-end's positioning to record highs... Read More

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Strengthens" in March

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity StrengthensTexas factory activity increased for the ninth consecutive month in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose two points to 18.6, suggesting output growth picked up pace this month. ... The general business activity index fell eight points but remained positive at 16.9, and the company outlook index was largely unchanged at 17.9...

Stocks and Bonds; Critical change of direction in play?

Since the summer of 2016, stocks have done very well and bonds have been thumped, as rates have risen sharply. Is it time for these trends to take a break? Below compares the performance of the S&P 500, with the popular bond ETF TLTover the past 9-months. The performance spread between stocks and bonds over the past 9-months is a big one! Rare to see the spread between the two being 30% in a 9-month time frame! If the S&P would happen to break support and TLT breaks resistance...

Dow Opens Down Over 700 Points From Highs, Breaks Key Technical Support

VIX topped 15 overnight - the highest since Nov 14th - and US equity futures slipped lower into the cash open. The Dow is opening at 20,450 - down over 700 points from the record highs at the start of March - and heading for the longest losing streak since 2011. The Dow is opening at around 20,450, down over 700 points from record highs on March 1st at 21,169... This is the first break below the 50-day moving average for The Dow since September... The Dow is now down 8 days in a row, a streak that was last beaten in 1978...

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in January, Up 5.4% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted. From Black Knight: Black Knight Home Price Index Report - January 2017 Transactions: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent...

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend: Schedule for Week of Mar 26, 2017 Monday: 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are down 13 and DOW futures are down 90 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $47.93 per barrel and Brent at $50.80 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $40, and Brent was at $40 - so oil prices are up about 25% year-over-year...

Buckle Up, the Bank of Japan Has Blown Up the Markets (Again)

If you have been long US stocks since Election night, you have been a Yen bear and nothing else.Last September the Bank of Japan announced a new policy of targeting a 0% yield on its 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds. Many in the investment community took this to represent a “tightening” of policy. It was no such thing. Targeting a 0% rate on 10-Year JGBs opens the door to unlimited currency devaluation as the Bank of Japan prints Yen to buy JGBs.Note the collapse of the Yen that followed this announcement...

US Crude Production Hits 13-Month Highs As Oil Rig Count Continues To Surge

With crude production at 13-month highs, the trend of rising rig counts (now up 10 weeks in a row) suggests OPEC remains anything but in control as the global inventory glut deepens. The last week saw the oil rig count rise by 21 (the most since January) to 652 - the highest since September 2015. From 318 at its trough in May2016, the US oil rig count is now up 33 to 652. US Crude production continues to track the lagged rig count and is now at its highest since Feb 2016...

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales increasing following Oil Price Related Slump

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2017 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Then sales increased more than 2 1/2 times, and hit 479 thousand SAAR in June 2015. Heavy truck sales declined again - probably mostly due to the weakness in the oil sector - and bottomed at 352 thousand SAAR in October of last year.

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