Opinions Uncensored

Tuesday: Small Business Index, PPI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher Mortgage rates moved modestly higher for the 3rd straight business day, making for a moderate correction from the last Wednesday's 1-month lows. In the recent context, talking about "1-month lows" and 3-day...

Prime Working-Age Population nears 2007 Peak

Update through November: The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of November 2017, according to the BLS, there were still fewer people in the 25 to 54 age group than in 2007.At the beginning of this year - based on demographics - it looked...

Duy: "Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook"

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg: Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook. A few excerpts: The Fed is likely to continue to point toward another 75 basis points of tightening in 2018 when it releases the next Summary of Economic Projections. To be sure, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting...

FOMC Preview

The consensus is that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate 25bps at the meeting this week.

Assuming the expected happens, the focus will be on the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's final press conference to try to determine how many rate hikes to expect in 2018.

Here are the September FOMC projections.

The projection for GDP in 2017 will likely be revised up. GDP in Q1 was at 1.2% annualized, Q2 at 3.1%, and Q3 at 3.3%. Current projections put Q4 GDP at around 2.5% to 2.9%. This would put GDP (Q4 over Q4) at the high end of the September forecast range.

Note: My guess is, as far as the impact of any fiscal stimulus, the Fed will...

BLS: Job Openings "Little changed" in October

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million and separations were little changed at 5.2 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. ...

The number of quits was unchanged at 3.2 million in October. The quits rate was 2.2 percent. The number of quits was little changed for total private, for government, and in all industries...

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Dec 10, 2017Monday:• 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 3, and DOW futures are up 23 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI...

Goldman: FOMC Preview

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and almost all analysts expect a rate hike this week. Here are a few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: With the FOMC almost certain to deliver the third rate hike of 2017 at its December meeting next week, attention is instead likely...

Schedule for Week of Dec 10, 2017

The key economic reports this week are November retail sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).For manufacturing, November industrial production, and the December New York Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week.The FOMC meets this week and is expected to announce a 25bps increase...