Opinions Uncensored

"Mortgage Rates Drop Quickly as Market Panic Sets In"

We could see a 3 handle for mortgage rates tomorrow.From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a MonthMortgage rates dropped quickly today as global financial markets underwent a volatile shift. When money is flowing out of stocks and into bonds (as it was...

A few Comments on April New Home Sales

New home sales for April were reported at 673,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for March were revised up to 723,000, a new high for this cycle.   Sales in January and February were also revised up.My view has been that we'd see further growth in New Home sales...

New Home Sales decreased to 673,000 Annual Rate in April, March Revised up to New Cycle High

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 692 thousand. The previous three months were revised up."Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.9 percent below the revised March rate of 723,000, but is 7.0 percent above the April 2018 estimate of 629,000." The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically. The second graph shows New Home Months of...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 211,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of...

Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 212 thousand last week.• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 678 thousand SAAR, down from 692...

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 2.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 17, 2019.... The Refinance Index...

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April...

Chemical Activity Barometer Increased Slightly in May

From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Third Monthly Gain in May. The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 0.4 percent in May on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, the third monthly gain after several weak months. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.5 percent (3MMA). "Year-earlier comparisons have turned positive in recent months, and while trade tensions, slowing economic growth overseas, and soft economic reports in the U.S. have created uncertainty that has weighed on business investment, the CAB signals gains in U.S. commercial and industrial activity through mid-2019, albeit at a moderate pace,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC...