For the first time ever, anyone can get FREE ACCESS to the Profit Radar Report. The last 6 complete Profit Radar Report updates covering the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, XLU, US dollar, EUR/USD, gold, silver, and 30-year Treasuries, TLT are available here. Enjoy!
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as...
For almost two years, investors were spoiled with low volatility and high returns, but recent market action has rattled the cage.
Will there be more ‘cage rattling!’ If so, how much?
Sometimes a simple common sense analysis is the best one. KISS.
KISS
The February 11 Profit Radar Report stated...
From January 26 to February 9, the S&P 500 lost as much as 11.84%. This initial freefall was followed by a rollercoaster-like performance.
The large February drop (340 S&P points) expanded the trading range and complicated the search for low-risk S&P 500 entries (see S&P 500...
Gold, silver and oil haven’t gone anywhere in 2018. Why?
The chart below plots gold, silver and crude oil against the US Dollar Index. The US dollar has been in a tight trading range for most of 2018. Although asset correlations come and go, commodities are traded in US dollars, and the US dollar inactivity likely contributed to the lack of direction in the commodities market.
I assume a dollar breakout will awaken commodities.
The November 29 US dollar update featured the chart below, which projects a more significant low in early 2018...
Seasonality is one of 4 key indicators we analyze (the other 3 are: Money flow, technicals, and investor sentiment). Out of many seasonal patterns, this is probably the most important one for all of 2018.
The 2018 S&P 500 Forecast (part of the Profit Radar Report) highlighted this seasonal pattern (and chart):
“2018 is a mid-term year (based on the 4-year presidential election year cycle. Historically, stocks rally from the mid-year (2018) low to the pre-election year (2019) high (on average 50%). The average S&P 500 gain over the last 5 cycles was 36.8% (see chart for individual cycle gains)...
The February 11 Profit Radar Report featured the chart below and stated that: “Based on Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is followed by wave 4, which is where we are currently at. Waves 4 are generally choppy, range-bound, long-winded, unpredictable corrections that retrace ideally 38.2% of the preceding wave 3. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,536 (reached on Friday). In terms of price, wave 4 has already reached its down side target. In terms of time, wave 4 would be unusually short.” After hitting 2,536 on February 9, the S&P 500 rallied as projected by this chart shown in the February 8 Profit Radar Report (Tuesday’s high at 2,789 was a bit higher than...
The February 8, 2018 Profit Radar Report published the following chart and commentary:
“The S&P 500 moved from the yellow zone into the green buy. Does that mean it’s time to buy? It depends on the time frame. Short-term, potentially yes. The hourly chart shows a 5-wave decline into today’s low. A completed 5-wave move, according to Elliott Wave Theory, generally projects a bounce followed by another leg lower. There were many extended fifth waves on the way up, so there is a distinct possibility that there will be extended fifth waves on the way down.”
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report...
What caused the February meltdown? If you are looking for another strong opinion, sorry, you won’t find it here.
Before we address the more important issue – whether now is the time to buy or sell – here is one tell-tale sign (of what contributed to the ‘meltdown’) brought out by the January 29...
The S&P 500 just traded in the ‘sweet spot zone’ for over 350 days. What is the sweet spot zone?
It’s above the 200-day SMA, but not more than 10% above the 200-day SMA. While in the sweet spot zone, the S&P has steadily moved higher without overheating. This is extremely rare.
In fact, there are only two other periods similar to this (1965, 1994). Both times the S&P ended the streak by falling below the 200-day SMA. On January 5, for the first time ever, the S&P broke higher (see chart below). What does it mean when the S&P goes from ‘not too hot’ to ‘hot’?
From Not Too Hot to Hot