ETF Talk

S&P 500 Update – Decision Time

The February 8, 2018 Profit Radar Report published the following chart and commentary:
“The S&P 500 moved from the yellow zone into the green buy. Does that mean it’s time to buy? It depends on the time frame. Short-term, potentially yes. The hourly chart shows a 5-wave decline into today’s low. A completed 5-wave move, according to Elliott Wave Theory, generally projects a bounce followed by another leg lower. There were many extended fifth waves on the way up, so there is a distinct possibility that there will be extended fifth waves on the way down.”
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report...

February Mini Meltdown: Warning Signal or Buying Opportunity

What caused the February meltdown? If you are looking for another strong opinion, sorry, you won’t find it here.
Before we address the more important issue – whether now is the time to buy or sell – here is one tell-tale sign (of what contributed to the ‘meltdown’) brought out by the January 29...

S&P 500 Update – The Surprising Implication of Strong Januaries

The S&P 500 just traded in the ‘sweet spot zone’ for over 350 days. What is the sweet spot zone?

It’s above the 200-day SMA, but not more than 10% above the 200-day SMA. While in the sweet spot zone, the S&P has steadily moved higher without overheating. This is extremely rare.

In fact, there are only two other periods similar to this (1965, 1994). Both times the S&P ended the streak by falling below the 200-day SMA. On January 5, for the first time ever, the S&P broke higher (see chart below). What does it mean when the S&P goes from ‘not too hot’ to ‘hot’?

From Not Too Hot to Hot

S&P 500 Update

2017 was one of the most unique years ever, not just for the stock market, also in terms of world events and natural catastrophes.
An almost unprecedented phenomenon was that of strong stock market momentum.
The November 19, 2017 Profit Radar Report pointed out that:
“The S&P 500 was higher...

Dollar, Euro, Gold Update

Dollar Update

The January 2 Profit Radar Report published this chart and long-term US Dollar Index forecast:

“The US Dollar Index could be at or near the end of a 5 ½ year rally. As per Elliott Wave Theory, it is possible to count 5 waves up from the May 2011 low. There are bearish divergences at the December highs, and investor sentiment is in favor of a lower dollar. We are alert for a potential multi-month US dollar decline."
As it turns out, the US Dollar Index actually peaked on January 3, and spent the next 8 months falling lower.
In August/September we were expecting a bottom, but at the time we were not sure how big of a bounce to expect.

In November it became clear that the rally from the September 8 low to the October 27 ...

Stock Market Update: This is the Clearest Chart Right Now

There’s never been a time when articles on have been posted at the snail-pace of about one per month … until now. Unless you are a stock picker, there’s simply been nothing worthwhile to write about. The October 1 Profit Radar Report warned of just such a period of inactivity: “The bullish Elliott Wave Theory count would see stocks grind higher for a number of weeks in a 2 steps forward, 1 step back pattern. A real unexciting, unstimulating and uninspiring grind higher to 2,600+/-. Unless the S&P drops below 2,500, this is now the most likely outcome.” Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says...

Gold Tug-of War: Mid-term Bullish vs Short-term Bearish

Gold has been zigzagging up and down for all of 2017. This erratic performance brings a measure of uncertainty, but – in a way – it also increases confidence in our long-term forecast. Starting in November 2015, the Profit Radar Report expected a sizeable gold rally. The November 30, 2015 Profit Radar Report published the chart below, which shows gold at quadruple support and record bullish smart money hedgers. An ideal setup for a rally (gold’s final low occurred on December 3, 2015 at 1,045). The second chart shows the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) labeling we’ve been following for the past years. According to EWT, the first wave (comprised of five sub-waves) of the bear market ended in December 2015. The rally since is a counter trend move...

S&P 500 Update: Top or Not?

The last S&P 500 update outlined why 2,500+/- has been our up side target for over a year.

Our view has been that S&P 2,500+/- is not the target for a major top, but it should lead to a 5-10% correction.

The August 7 Profit Radar Report zoomed in on 2,495 as short-term target (based on the ascending red trend line) and stated:

“The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at a new all-time high at the lowest volume of the year. The ideal scenario (and tempting setup to go short) would be a spike to 2,495+ followed by an intraday reversal.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens...

S&P 500 Update: Is This Rally Leg Over?

The September 5, 2016 Profit Radar Report published the chart below along with the following commentary:

“The chart below shows the long-term up side target purely based on projected symmetry. Based on the 1997 – 2013 trading range, the measured up side target is S&P 2,330 – 2,485, which is in the general vicinity of the 2,290 – 2,342 Fibonacci levels mentioned in the 2016 S&P 500 Forecast. Higher targets are possible, but we’ll reassess once we get there.” Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report. The second chart shows the trading activity over the past year along with short-term bars and trend lines we used to narrow down the up side target (the latest up side target was 2,494)...