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Futures & FX

China's Economy: New Warning Signs

China's consumer confidence declined sharply in May to 99.0 from 103.7 in April. Of course household spending in China represents only around 35% of the GDP (according to the World Bank), while the US consumer is over 70%. Nevertheless taken together with China's manufacturing PMI, we may be...

Fed – Tapering or the definition of tapering

Despite a buoyant market ahead of the Fed the afternoon session...s being clouded by concern coming out of a Financial Times (FT) article about how Big Ben may be more ready to talk tapering on Wednesday that many had thought. 

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke

Everyone knows the Fed...

Is gold at a reflection point?

 The price of gold this afternoon remains slightly lower by 0.43% or -$6.00 to $1,381.60 as gold traders remain on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and statement this Wednesday. 

Gold has been range bound since mid-May trapped both by the fundamentals and technicals...

Predicting QE Tapering is a Questionable Endeavor.

Currencies remained volatile in the past several days, with some of the action attributed to “expected” steps by the FED. The central bank will hold its regular policy meeting in the coming week and many traders have been already trying to predict what the policy makers are going to do. Just as it has been the case for a long time, interest rates are not in focus – virtually nobody expects to see changes in this department. Instead, market talk is centered on tapering of the QE or withdrawing of the additional liquidity that the FED was injecting in markets during prior few years...

Why Is Gold Draining Out of COMEX Warehouses?

Gold conspiracy theorists have a new bogeyman. Inventories of gold bars held in the COMEX warehouses are falling. This fact is offered to support the stale allegations of “fractional gold” and “manipulation”. They have been predicting a “signal failure” that is coming any day now, like the Great Pumpkin in the Charlie Brown Halloween special. If not that, then surely at least the price of gold is going “to da moon”. Any day now, we have been repeatedly told, every day and every dollar down from the peak around $1900.


The price will rise again, as the centrally planned paper currencies continue their inexorable slide towards the oblivion of bankruptcy. The dollar, like all irredeemable paper currencies before it, will become worthless one day. That does not mean that there cannot be significant volatility in the meantime...

Putting Emerging Markets performance in perspective

The charts tell you what you need to know about asset flows, quantitative...asing (QE), and the impact on...merging markets. 

I have chronicled...merging markets’ underperformance to the S&P 500 (SPX) numerous times in the last few months highlighting what appeared to be key levels, while also...

Emerging Market Mining Equipment Not Dead in the Water

Caterpillar’s (CAT quote) chart shows strong support in the 81.00-82.00 level (see chart inside).


…and weakness from China well flagged and priced into the stock. Last night on Fast Money I debate CAT from the bull case and argue that this company, who gets more than 60% of their sales from emerging markets, is priced to own.


The company has been clear to investors saying that CAT is in a “transitional” demand year. This is no surprise. Lower mining sales have been priced into stock and factored into revised guidance by CAT themselves leaving the stock at very interesting valuation levels...