USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar Awaiting US Data

- US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment ahead

- Equity traders are spooked, Wall Street poised to open in negative territory

- US dollar opens firm on safe-haven demand

USDCAD Snapshot: Open 1.2480-84, Overnight Range-1.2468-1.2508, previous close 1.2508, WTI open

$83.07, Gold open $1823.58

The Canadian dollar failed to decisively break major resistance yesterday, and it is trading defensively in

NY. The Canadian dollar rallied along with the other commodity currencies yesterday when traders

appeared to be unconcerned about the prospect of higher USD interest rates.

A bit of weaker than expected US data and fresh selling pressures on Wall Street turned the Canadian

dollar rally into a rout. USDCAD climbed and closed at to 1.2520. The overnight session was choppy.

USDCAD dropped to 1.2472 in early European trading than bounced to 1.2516 in NY.

Canadian dollar losses are slightly insulated by firm oil prices. West Texas Intermediate climbed to

$83.26/barrel overnight, underpinned by forecasts for rising demand and prices, as well as lower US

crude inventories.

Global equity markets fell in tandem with Wall Street’s negative close. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.26%

with the move exacerbated by reports the Bank of Japan was discussing raising interest rates. Chinese

and Australian indexes dropped as well.

European equities are in the red, with the UK FTSE 100 index outperforming. It has only dropped 0.30%

thanks to robust UK data, compared to a 1.0% fall in Germany’s DAX index.

China’s trade surplus ballooned to $94.46 billion in December, compared to November’s $71.72 result.

Imports rose 19.5% y/y, (previous 31.7%), while Exports rose 20.9% y/y (previous 22% y/y). the monthly

data was mixed but the year over year trade surplus of $676.0 billion is a record.

EURUSD retreated from an overnight peak of 1.1482 to 1.1443 in early NY. The Euro area reported a

surprise trade deficit which may have weighed on sentiment. However, traders are more focused on

what today’s US Retail Sales data will mean for equities and interest rates.

GBPUSD is at the bottom of its overnight 1.3707-1.3742 range. Gains from better than expected UK

data including November GDP (actual 0.9% m/m vs forecast 0.4% m/m), Industrial production (actual

1.0% m/m vs forecast 0.2%) and Manufacturing Production rising 1.1% have faded into the USD data


US Retail Sales (forecast 0.0% m/m in December) and Michigan Consumer Confidence (forecast 70 vs

previous 70.6)

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